Page 17 - ICJ Jan 2026

TECHNICAL PAPER

Figure 18: Outline of Monte Carlo simulation for fire risk assessment of concrete

In the case of a real fire, the resulting damage to concrete can Key contributions: The study reiterates the application of Monte
vary with construction parameters. The study used different Carlo simulation for the development of risk assessment and
construction parameters that can be observed in the Indian exploits it for the development of safety guidelines. The concept
construction industry to simulate millions of fire curves and of Monte Carlo for risk assessment is not novel. The present
[32]
identify the probability of damage to the LC concrete . study, for the first time, extends the applicability of simulation
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Figure 18 shows the overview of the Monte Carlo simulation by including actual parameters from the Indian construction
[32]
adopted in the study . The advantage of determining failure industry and demonstrates the development of safety
probability is the development of safety guidelines while guidelines. The study also provides a better understanding
balancing economy. Concrete structures are designed with towards the strength loss mechanism in LC concrete, along with
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an acceptable risk or failure probability. Adding constraints to guidelines for fire safety.
the Monte Carlo simulation can reduce the failure probability
of concrete within acceptable margins. In the study on LC Limitations: The simulation requires a complex framework and
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concrete, constraints in the form of reserve strength and significant computational power. The study used a simplified
restricted structural application reduced the risks within framework by excluding reinforcement failure, thermal gradient,
acceptable margins . The constraints represent the safety source of fire, and layout arrangement among various other
[32]
guidelines that can be extended to construction practices. factors. To compensate for the limitations of factors, the
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Similar simulations can be used to determine risks and manage framework used a comparative analysis with OPC and LC .
them to determine safety guidelines for robust industrial Further expansion of the simulation is needed for true risk
applications of alternative concrete under different failure assessment, and development of a generalised framework
mechanisms. applicable to a wide range of materials.

THE INDIAN CONCRETE JOURNAL | JANUARY 2026 79